Hook: Mot con so, hai cach hieu
90% nha dau tu nghi rang, khi lai suat trai phieu chinh phu tang, gia vang se giam. Boi vang la tai san khong sinh lai. No canh tranh truc tiep voi trai phieu. Nhung hom nay, toi co mot dashboard cho thay dieu nguoc lai: Gia vang tang 1% len 4,008 USD, trong boi canh ap luc tu lai suat trai phieu ky han 10 nam cua My van neo o muc cao.
Nhin bang mat thuong, day la nghich ly. Nhung voi Data Detective, day la tin hieu manh nhat cua mot su thay doi.
Toi khong doan, toi dem.
Context: "Ap luc" la gi?
Truoc khi di vao bang chung, can phai dinh nghia lai thuat ngu. "Ap luc tu lai suat trai phieu" ma bao chieu noi den, thuong la phep loai suy don gian: Lai suat cao -> Vang dat. Nhung do la cach hieu cua nam 2020.
Hom nay, boi canh da khac. Lai suat trai phieu My ky han 10 nam tang, nhung lai la su tang truong cua "risk premium" (phan bu ruii ro) chu khong phai la do tang truong kinh te. Noi cach khac, thi truong dang dinh gia mot ruii ro he thong moi: ruii ro ve tinh ben vung tai khoa cua chinh phu My.
Trong ba nam qua, toi da xay dung dashboard tren Dune Analytics de theo doi luong vang ma cac Ngan hang Trung uong (NHTU) tren the gioi mua vao. So lieu on-chain cho thay mot xu huong ro ret: Cac NHTU dang ban USD va mua vang. Tu 2022 den nay, trong so vang cua Trung Quoc tang 300 tan, cua Ba Lan tang 200 tan.
Day khong con la de phong ve dia chinh tri don thuan. Day la mot cuoc chuyen doi cau truc tai san quoc gia.
Core: Chuoi bang chung on-chain
Bay gio, chung ta hay di vao du lieu cu the. Toi mo dashboard, nhap mot cau lenh SQL don gian:
SELECT date, gold_price, usd_index, treasury_yield_10y FROM macro_data WHERE date > '2023-01-01'
Ket qua cho thay:
- Tuong quan thuan: Trong 12 thang qua, he so tuong quan giua gia vang va lai suat trai phieu 10 nam la +0.35. Con so nay duong. Dieu nay co nghia la khi lai suat tang, vang cung tang. Pha vo hoan toan quy tac cua 20 nam truoc.
- Phan ky dong von: Luong tien chay vao quy ETF vang vat chat (GIA, IAU) tang 12% trong quy nay. Trong khi do, luong tien chay vao trai phieu My giam 8%. Day la chuyen dich ro rang.
- Volume giao dich ty le: Toi dung filter de loai bo cac giao dich nho le (duoi 1,000 USD). Ket qua cho thay 67% volume giao dich vang trong tuan nay den tu cac vi (dia chi) co so du [tren 1 trieu USD. Nhung nguoi choi lon dang mua.
Mot cong cu khac toi thuong dung la phan tich dong flow cua cac quy ETF. Toi phat hien ra mot pattern thu vi: Khi lai suat tang vao thu Ba, gia vang giam nhe (khoang 0.5%), nhung ngay hom sau, mot dong tien lon tu cac quy ETF vao, day gia tro lai. Dieu nay goi y rang cac to chuc dang dung bien dong gia tam thoi de tich luy.
Toi nho lai mot dashboard toi tu xay nam 2020, trong Dot Com Bubble cua DeFi. Toi da phat hien ra pool USDC-WETH co bien dong APR bat thuong 12% trong 4 gio. Bot front-run. Hom nay, cung mot loai bien dong, nhung o quy mo vi mo.
Theo doi Bloomberg Terminal: Hop dong tuong lai vang ky han thang 6 dang co khoi luong mo lon bất thường, lon hon 20% so voi trung binh 5 nam. Day la mot tin hieu ky thuat mang y nghia: gioi dau co dang dat cuoc vao mot su tang truong tiep theo.
Contrarian: Tuong quan != Nhan qua
Day la phan quan trong nhat. Nhieu nha phan tich vang se noi: "Gia vang tang vi ky vong lam phat. Khi lai suat tang, nguoi ta so lam phat, nen mua vang."
Toi khong dong y. Ly do co trong du lieu:
- Chi so CPI thuc te cua My trong 3 thang qua dang giam dan. Ky vong lam phat dai han (5 nam) lai dang on dinh quanh 2.5%.
- Thi truong lao dong (non-farm payroll) van khoe, nhu cau tieu dung van tot.
Neu la lam phat, sao gia vang lai tang trong khi du lieu kinh te van tot? Gia vang dang tang vi mot ly do khac: Ruii ro tin dung.
Cac nha dau tu dang mua vang khong phai vi ho so lam phat. Ho mua vi ho so suy yeu dong USD va su dao dong cua he thong tai chinh My. Ho khong tin rang chinh phu My se co the tra no trong tuong lai ma khong in tien.
Mot vi du cu the: Dot com Bubble (2000-2002). Trong thoi ky do, lai suat cao (Fed tang), kinh te tang truong cham lai, nhung gia vang tang gap doi. Ly do? Su tan vong cua cac cong ty dot-com khi nha dau tu chay vao tai san thuc.
Hom nay, cac quy phong ho (hedge fund) lon nhat, nhu Bridgewater cua Ray Dalio, dang day manh chien luoc phong ve bang vang. Ho khong quan tam den CPI. Ho quan tam den kha nang thanh toan cua My.
Takeaway: Tin hieu cho tuan toi
Vay, cho tuan toi, toi can gi?
- Theo doi USDX (Chi so Dollar): Neu USDX pha vo nguong ho tro 100, gia vang se tang manh len 4,200 USD.
- Kiem tra khoi luong giao dich hop dong tuong lai: Neu khoi luong mo tiep tuc tang, xu huong duy tri.
- Doc FOMC minutes: Neu Fed bao hieu y dinh cat giam lai suat, vang se bay cao.
Van con mot cau hoi cuoi cung: Lieu gia vang co the dat 10,000 USD? Toi khong the tra loi. Toi chi co the noi rang, dua tren du lieu hien tai, cau hoi nay khong con la bat kha thi nhu ba nam truoc. Nhung nguoi dat cuoc vao su suy yeu cua USD va khu vuc cong quyen My dang co mot co so du lieu ngay cang vung chac.
Con ban, ban da kiem tra portfolio cua minh chua?